Exploring HODL Waves and On-Chain Analysis in Bitcoin

Bitcoin price has been rising and some argue that it is tracking along with the S2F model! Others argue that this is statistically invalid. PlanB, pseudonymous analyst and creator of the S2F and S2FX models rejoins me on the show to talk:

• S2F and S2FX vs recent market action
• Critiques and spurious correlations
• Comparison with past cycles
• PlanB’s thoughts on whether this is the final cycle
• Macro factors - Tether and others
• Negative rates
• Cash and carry trade

Previous episodes:

• SLP67 Plan B (@100trillionUSD) – Modelling Bitcoin’s digital scarcity through stock-to-flow techniques
• SLP86 PlanB – Frontrunning the Bitcoin Halvening?
• SLP122 PlanB – Responses to the S2F model
• SLP171 PlanB & Saifedean Ammous – Bitcoin S2FX, S2F, and Evolution From Collectible to Financial Asset

Sponsors:

• Swan Bitcoin
• Knox Custody
• Hodl Hodl
• Unchained Capital (code LIVERA)
• CypherSafe (code LIVERA)

Stephan Livera links:

• Show notes and website
• Follow me on twitter @stephanlivera
• Subscribe to the podcast
• Patreon @stephanlivera