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Episode 36: The Coming Recession and Monster Default Cycle; why Illiquidity is Concealing Huge Risks; the Rise of Risk-free Yield and what it Means for Asset-Allocation

Complexity Premia

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Investing in Illiquid Markets - The Big Idea

Since January 2022, we have forecast a US and global recession. And our models continue to imply that it's likely in late 2023 and early 2024. Central banks are singularly focused on demand destruction and crushing inflation back to their circa 2% targets. This is an existential battle for central bank credibility. We do not think that policymakers are worried about downside economic risks. They have to secure these downsides and arrows to in turn deliver price stability. The power put option is well and truly dead. Equity is surprising the discount rate changes, but not recession risk in our view. Yes.

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