The World's Best Forecaster

In July 2016, who would win the US Republican presidential primary? The options were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Kali Fiorena. But Jean Pierre decided Trump had a 68% chance of winning. He paid more attention to factors that were hard to measure and overlooked. For Trump, those included mastery at manipulating the media,. name recognition and a winning issue i.e. immigration and the wall. How many of us can even remember the last time we admitted being wrong and revised our opinions accordingly?