Brent Donnelly (@donnelly_brent), president of Spectra Markets, joins Julia La Roche on episode 26. Brent has been trading since 1995 and writing about global macro since 2004. He is the author of “Alpha Trader” (2021) and “The Art of Currency Trading” (Wiley, 2019). He writes a widely-read and highly-respected global macro daily called am/FX. He just published a trader handbook and almanac this week.
Throughout his career, he has been a market maker, trader, and senior manager at some of the top banks in the U.S. and a portfolio manager at a major hedge fund. Brent also has a creative side, publishing colorful commentary. He also wrote a cartoon that ran on television in Canada.
During this episode, Donnelly shares his macro views and why he’s near-term bullish and riding this optimism wave. Donnelley’s investment style takes only a one-week to a one-month horizon. Donnelly, who traded during the dot-com bubble burst, shares why we might see something similar to 2001 next year.
0:00 Intro
0:36 Early beginnings trading FX
2:24 Trading and writing cartoons
7:14 Writing critical to trading success
12:31 Daily trading plan
16:20 There’s no Fed pivot happening
18:05 Long stocks, short dollar in near-term
19:46 Mortgage resets
21:14 Pain from rate hikes in the U.S. comes later
23:23 Sell rallies in stocks
24:16 Fed losing credibility
28:03 Playing the optimism trade
30:28 Good time for macro
32:00 Tactical trading approach
34:34 Pavlovian buy-the-dip mentality
37:07 Why we might see something similar to 2001
42:00 What breaks things?
43:43 Magazine cover indicator
