A Full-Employment Economy With Mixed Signals

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds, including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss:

1. The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle
2. The Imported AI Capex Illusion
3. Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock
4. The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency
5. The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion
6. The Return of FOMC Dissension
7. The Waller Swing Vote & the 2026 Rate Path
8. The 2027 AI De-escalation Surprise