The Ukraine's Summer Offensive

I think we shouldn't have been surprised that Putin invaded and indeed this was something that I was warning about. Authoritarian regimes are brittle, right? They don't bend, they break. And I would say we are at the stage of cracks. Now it may be, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is what starts to happen for the end of this year. We do get more murmurings about negotiations. The risk, of course, is that a ceasefire in the immortal words of the political scientist Edward Lutvok is just by his time to reload. That's what will worry Ukraine.