Is the Fed Engineering a Recession?

Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to 263,000 in September, in line with expectations, even as the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.7%. Combined with the relatively slow pace of firings, the Federal Reserve has all the data it needs to proceed with another 75-basis-point rate hike in November. But, as Peter Boockvar notes, the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims are lagging indicators. “My issue with the Fed,” notes Boockvar, “remains that after over-medicating us over the past few years that now shock therapy is overkill.” Boockvar joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about how far the Fed will go to get what it wants. We also share a sneak preview of a conversation between Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, and Maggie Lake about how the U.S. labor market has changed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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