Powell Hits Pause…For Now
MRKT Matrix
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The Fear of Recession in the Mid-90s
There has never been an inversion this deep that was not followed by a recession. My biggest fear right now is that we repeat the mid-90s, when rates stayed above 5% for like four years. If the yield curve uninverts, maybe it bounces around in that sort of zero-ish neutral territory. There's no real reason to flood capital in or out. So it gets kind of frozen and we get stuck.
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