THINKING, FAST & SLOW (DANIEL KAHNEMAN) - Listening books
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The Conjunction Fallacy: A Study of 100 Adult Males in British Columbia
Because the die has twice as many green as red faces, the first sequence of five throws is quite unlikely. A second sequence which contains six tosses is a better fit to what we would expect from this die because it includes two Gs. Almost two-thirds of respondents preferred to bet on sequence two rather than on sequence one. When presented with arguments for the two choices, however, a large majority found the correct argument favoring sequence one more convincing.
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