Warning signs for overinvestment in power

Over the years, we have really enjoyed hosting the Goldman Sachs Research Team, and today we are thrilled to share this Special Edition featuring Neil Mehta (Managing Director and Head of North American Natural Resources Equity Research), Carly Davenport (Vice President, Equity Research), and Brian Singer (Managing Director and Global Head, GS SUSTAIN for Global Investment Research). Neil joined Goldman in 2008 and oversees research coverage across oil and gas, utilities, midstream, metals and mining, and clean technology, while also leading coverage for large-cap energy equities. Carly joined Goldman in 2016 and covers U.S. utilities. She previously covered SMID-cap refiners and was a member of the integrated oils & refiners team. Brian joined the firm as an analyst in 1998 and has covered energy companies based in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Russia, South Africa, and the U.S.
 
As many of you likely know, Goldman recently hosted its annual Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference. Jeff Tillery, Arjun Murti, and Maynard were thrilled to welcome the team back to discuss key takeaways and the broader energy landscape. As you will hear, it was a wide-ranging and substantive discussion, thanks to Neil, Carly, and Brian, whose coverage and breadth of knowledge made for a fascinating conversation.
 
In our discussion, Neil walks us through how Goldman’s Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference has broadened its coverage over time and how the Maduro/Venezuela developments shaped conversations, especially the market’s tendency to trade geopolitical headlines to extremes before recalibrating. Brian explains how sustainability in 2026 is increasingly about risk mitigation and reliability (power, water, supply chains), and why the power buildout is a “yes-and” environment rather than an either/or fuel debate. Carly discusses how the market is shifting from “own-the-theme” to a more stock-picker setup as 2025 plans translate into concrete PPA announcements and load-growth rationalization, with an all-of-the-above sourcing outlook across coal, gas, renewables, and longer-dated nuclear. We cover oil and gas risk-taking, M&A, and why consolidation may be necessary, but not sufficient, especially for U.S.-focused shale players. We explore lessons from shale on cost position and diversification, investor “permission” for expansion via Brian’s CARE checklist, how to “get outside your lane” without losing credibility, and the guardrails utilities face in avoiding volatility and merchant exposure. Brian outlines investor behavior in a demand-driven upcycle, scale as a differentiator in power, and his energy policy STARS lens: Supply Transition, Affordability, Reliability, and Security, along with supply-chain depth and labor as a binding constraint. Carly also shares underappreciated themes including grid maintenance and resilience investment needs and potential ROE and affordability pressure. Neil highlights economic re-acceleration as a potentially underappreciated upside driver for energy equities and contrasts strategic priorities for refiners versus midstream. We close by asking what’s next for the team as they look ahead to next year’s conference. We greatly appreciate Neil, Carly, and Brian for sharing their time and perspectives.
 
We hope you find today’s discussion as insightful and interesting as we did. Our best to you all and Happy MLK Day!