THINKING, FAST & SLOW (DANIEL KAHNEMAN) - Listening books
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The Paradox of Regression
Overconfidence and the pressure of meeting high expectations are often offered as explanations. An athlete who gets to be on the cover of Sports Illustrated must have performed exceptionally well in the preceding season, probably with the assistance of a nudge from luck. The change from the first to the second jump does not need a causal explanation. It is a mathematically inevitable consequence of the fact that luck played a role in the outcome of the first jump.
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