The Department of the Air Force faces a crisis. Decades’ worth of insufficient budgets has slowed essential modernization, necessary capacity and key personnel investments. Air Force and Space Force leaders have warned of these risks for years. However, resource decisions were largely out of their control. As a result, the U.S. Air Force now operates the oldest and smallest aircraft inventory in its history. Combined with a lack of spare parts, an enduring pilot shortage, and falling pilot experience levels, the Air Force finds itself in a precarious condition that portends a national security disaster. The U.S. Space Force, meanwhile, is struggling to meet growing demand for the essential capabilities it provides. One of the biggest challenges: scale. The Space Force is constrained by its size and must grow as rapidly as possible.

The cost to recover the Air Force’s decline and adequately fund the growth of the Space Force will require an increase of at least $45 billion annually for at least the next five years. The Department of the Air Force underpins and enables warfare in every domain, not just air and space. Prioritizing these capabilities can help the Trump defense team achieve its objective of “pursue peace through strength” but doing so requires a new way of doing business and in particular not the conventional stove-piped, “salami slice” budget cutting approach. Using cost-per-effect assessments to make optimal decisions, the new administration can achieve the best use of the nation’s resources. There is no time left to delay reversing the Department of the Air Force’s current course. The fixes must start now, or the United States risks losing the next major war.