5min chapter

Forward Guidance cover image

No Clear Sign Of Recession Yet, Says Nick Reece

Forward Guidance

CHAPTER

The Decline of PMIs

PMI readings have been decelerating in the US and most other major economies. That's consistent with a mid-cycle slowdown, but it doesn't mean we're going into recession. The Fed is likely to make a dumish pivot here sooner than many people expect. In Germany, they just had an unemployment rate jump of over 10%. And this comes back to the point that I was making earlier about China.

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