
Episode 3 - Probabilistic Forecasting using MonteCarlo
Drunk Agile
00:00
The Difficulty of Monte Carlo Simulation
There is no such thing as 100%. Just like we talked about before, it's probabilistic thinking there's no suchthing as 100%. At the 95th percentile now we're only wrong one out of every 20 times. And so you see where we're actually a little bit more confident to even go from the 85th percentiles to the 95thpercentile. So that's 10% if you will, 10% increase in confidence. There's also, you might not always have an end date you might just have an end number of stories. That's just the way I don't know did you want to say something about that particular particular simulation. Yeah, and, and,
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