Tariff Trajectories: Peak Deglobalization or Reversal

Welcome to the future. In 2026, we're pretty convinced that the global map will get some major rewrites. Our '26 bingo card has the potential collapse of the Venezuelan and Cuban regimes, the end of the war in Ukraine, and the subsequent battle for Russia’s very soul crossed out. While others fear peaking deglobalization, Marko and Jacob see a path to lowered tariffs and an incoming LNG glut that finally breaks the back of Europe’s energy crisis. It’s time to stop looking for patterns and start preparing for the non-linear :) chaoschaoschaoschaos

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:16) - Forecasting 2026: Tariffs and Trade

(04:40) - US-China Relations and Latin America Focus

(11:03) - Predictions for Venezuela and Cuba

(13:55) - Ukraine War and Russian Politics

(23:57) - European Energy Market Outlook

(28:36) - Middle East: A Callous Perspective

(29:50) - Saudi Arabia and UAE: Progress and Predictions

(30:25) - Iran's Uncertain Future

(32:11) - Turkey's Role in Geopolitics

(33:08) - Oil Prices and Middle East Stability

(35:59) - Israel's Resilience and Market Impact

(39:42) - Forecasting Global Trade Agreements

(44:57) - The Rise of Robotics in 2026

(51:34) - Blind Spots and Unmentioned Regions

(54:41) - Final Thoughts and Potential Oversights

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro