The Economic Impact of Banking Turmoil
Notes on the Week Ahead
The Fed's Predictions on Inflation
The price of West Tech's intermediate crude oil has fallen by 17% from over $80 a barrel to under 67. Wage growth which is now trailed year over year CPI headline inflation for 23 straight months could remain subdued as workers worry about potential recession and small businesses worry about bank credit lines. Back in December despite relatively hawkish rhetoric about inflation being too high the Federal Reserve projected a relatively sharp decline in headline PC inflation between 2022 and 2024. This Wednesday's official Fed projections may well show something like this path. Annoyingly rather than celebrate the significant decline in inflation this last summer the Fed may well seem impatient to bring inflation down faster but they really shouldn't try to.
