Distinguishing Skill from Luck in Competitive Fields

This week on Upstream, we’re dropping the first episode of Logan Bartlett, Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, and Zach Weinberg's newest podcast This Won’t Last. The show is an unfiltered backchannel where they unpack the hype cycles in venture, startup culture, and business.

In this episode they discuss Paul Graham’s essay "Founder Mode", AI valuations, the state of the venture market, and free speech concerns with Telegram and TikTok.

—

🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/

—

RECOMMENDED PODCAST

🎙️This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg's monthly backchannel. They unpack their hottest takes on the future of tech, business, venture, investing, and politics.

Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1765665937

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2HwSNeVLL1MXy0RjFPyOSz

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThisWontLastpodcast

—

SPONSORS

💡 Level up your portfolio with access to pre-IPO companies via the Fundrise Innovation Fund. Access a $125M+ fund of cutting edge tech companies including AI frontrunners, now available to individual investors. Start your journey at http://fundrise.com/upstream.

Get first-party targeting with Brave's private ad platform: cookieless and future proof ad formats for all your business needs. Performance meets privacy. Head to https://brave.com/brave-ads/ and mention “MoZ” when signing up for a 25% discount on your first campaign.

💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/ and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

—

LINKS

High Output Management by Andy Grove https://www.amazon.com/High-Output-Management-Andrew-Grove/dp/0679762884/ 

Keith Rabois' lecture notes from 2013: How to Operate https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fQHLK1aIBs 

Tesla vs Edison: The Last Days of Night: A Novel by Graham Moore https://www.amazon.com/Last-Days-Night-Novel/dp/0812988922 

Disruptive Innovation by Clayton M. Christensen https://hbr.org/2015/12/what-is-disruptive-innovation 

The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing by Michael J. Mauboussin https://www.amazon.com/Success-Equation-Untangling-Business-Investing/dp/1422184234 

Dark Wire by Joseph Cox https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Wire-Incredible-Largest-Operation/dp/1541702697 

On railroads: Engines That Move Markets by Alistair Nairn https://www.amazon.com/Engines-That-Markets-Alisdair-Nairn/dp/0857195999/ 

The Kremlin has entered your chat https://www.wired.com/story/the-kremlin-has-entered-the-chat/

The Logan Bartlett Show https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCugS0jD5IAdoqzjaNYzns7w

—

TIMESTAMPS

(00:00) Intro

(02:20) Show origins

(03:34) Kevin comes back from Burning Man

(05:17) Paul Graham's Founder Mode, founder mode intuitive Keith, Pierre Lamond anecdote

(07:57) Keith's response to kernel of Founder Mode, Andy Grove High Output Management

(09:26) Zach asks what's unique about Founder Mode and Keith clarifies

(10:10) Manager vs. Founder

(13:55) Founder moral authority

(15:57) Investing in founder driven CEOs

(19:42) OCI | WorkOS Ads

(21:57) State of venture markets

(24:26) Driverless car future

(30:39) Revenue quality in Al valuations

(34:55) Squad Ad

(37:18) New technology being disruptive or helpful for incumbents

(40:01) Al in Biotech

(43:03) Al impacting fund AUM

(46:48) Al as the transistor

(47:39) Hurdle to return Al CapEx

(48:49) Unrealized Capital Gains Tax

(51:45) Sweden's tax vs Norway and corporation tax rates

(59:13) Medicare and Social Security, beneficial tax policies and misleading life expectancy stats

(1:05:33) Lina Khan, Antitrust effect on tech industry

(1:14:26) Perplexity shocking Google

(1:16:48) Pavel Durov and Russia's Influence in Telegram

(1:21:04) Not using TikTok & Telegram, risk in capital in Chinese companies

(1:26:44) Closing