The Long Term Perspective on Earnings

Q1 earnings season kicks off next week. I think we're all expecting financials to not report well, but on the revision side, I think we'll see a lot of activity this season and that's going to change the way that we're looking at the market for the next nine months. The contraction doesn't usually end where we are right now. We probably got to get down below 218 because of everything that we're facing in this environment. But even if you don't think it gets down to 167, which is the historical norm in terms of percentage drops, let's just say it's in half. Let's say we get halfway there. And again, what's the right