Macro Drivers: Shutdown, GDP, and Stagflation

In this Daily Editorial, we welcome back Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky, for his technical and fundamental outlook on the gold and silver prices up near record levels, and then the recent rebound in the precious metals stocks.  While the PM stocks have done quite well this year, they’ve still not come close to factoring in the huge economic implications of these higher underlying metals prices into their current valuations.

 Key takeaways from Dave in this interview:

Gold and Silver Price Strength Continues – With gold up near $4,200 and silver up in the $52-$53 area, after having hit $54 again earlier this week, it is now trying to make $50 the floor instead of a 45-year ceiling.

Miners’ Rebound After A 2-Week Correction – GDX and GDXJ have clawed their way higher since the end of last week, but they’ve not performed as well as some of the quality junior mining stocks have on a percentage basis in this recent recovery.

Chart and Cycle Patterns – After gold hit $3,500 in April, it consolidated for 5 months before resuming its uptrend. When gold recently hit an all-time high near $4,400 in October, it only waited a couple weeks before resuming its uptrend.  This may bode well for this correction not being as drawn out in time.  Dave would prefer to see the PM sector correct in time versus price, in more of a sideways consolidation to build the strength for the next move higher.

Company Valuations Are Still Cheap In Relation To Current Metals Prices – We are now half way through Q4 at substantially higher metals prices than in Q3, and yet the market caps and gains in the stocks have not even come close to reflecting the higher gold and silver producer margins, nor the improved economics of development-stage projects.

Merger and Acquisition Transactions Continue – After IAMGOLD’s (IMG.TO) recent twin acquisitions, and Coeur Mining’s (CDE) takeover of New Gold (NGD), we’ve also seen news that Probe Gold (TSX: PRB) (OTCQB: PROBF) is being acquired by Fresnillo Plc. (FRES.L) (FNLPF).   Dave highlights why he feels that the takeover premium for Probe is on the low side at US$56 per ounce of gold in the ground, and that he and his subscribers are waiting to see if Probe gets a counter-offer from a larger producer like Agnico Eagle or Kinross Gold.  He goes on to highlight why a higher valued takeover offer would be good for the whole sector; with regards to what quality ounces in the ground in a top tier jurisdiction are being valued at.

Silver Tiger's Receipt Of A New Open-Pit Permit A Boon To Mexican PM Stocks - We discuss how in addition to the nice pop we saw in Silver Tiger Metals Inc. (TSXV:SLVR)(OTCQX:SLVTF) after receipt of their open-pit mining permit at El Tigre, that other Mexican companies like GoGold Resources Inc. (TSX: GGD) (OTCQX: GLGDF) and Discovery Silver Corp. (TSX: DSV) (OTCQX: DSVSF) also moved higher in reaction to this permitting milestone achieved.

Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website to learn more about Dave’s investment letter. 

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