When I say that I see people doing stuff that I wish I could short, it doesn't mean that all of those deals blew up. In fact, many of those deals might have worked out great. But still the question is you have to make judgments and you can't know in advance how those judgments are going to come out. All you can do is just do your best to make probability weighted judgments about what the world is likely to be. That's the best we can do.

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