THINKING, FAST & SLOW (DANIEL KAHNEMAN) - Listening books
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The Fallacy of Plausibility
In the original experiment with eight outcomes, 85% of graduate students had made the same mistake. As in the Mueller-Lyer Illusion, the fallacy remains attractive even when you know the truth. The confusion between probability and plausibility may play a pernicious role in the frequent use of scenarios as tools of forecasting.
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