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A 2023 Global Macro Outlook | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves

Supply Shock

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Do You Feel Richer Because You're Consuming Nomenclature Dollars?

We've had about an eight to 10 trillion depending on which metric you look at, drawdown in wealth from the stock market. A consumption has come off a little bit. I argue that if we stay at these more depressed levels in the stock market, we're potentially head lower. If we actually do fall into a more proper recession and then corporate earnings get hit and you get the kind of natural recession, people are going to consume less. This is really what the Fed is getting at, I think; it's going to be a experiment over the next six to nine months.

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