#63 – Ben Garfinkel on AI Governance
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The Selection Effect of Financial Markets
A lot of the reason why financial markets end up being efficient is there's some sort of selective process, right, where actors who are investing wisely get more money and then other ones die out. And in fact, you might positively expect institutions with a, like, high false positive rate because they're really looking out for the next thing to have died away. But actually, yeah, you could imagine it even being a bit of a bias to some extent against moving all of your money around on the basis of unexpected arguments. It's even a bit stronger than would be rational to have emerged on the based of a past election.
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