Human Biases in Perceiving Risk

What does it mean to take the temperature of the world's anxieties? Each year, the World Economic Forum asks over a thousand experts across the globe to weigh what keeps them up at night—and the resulting Global Risks Report offers something more valuable than prediction: a map of collective concern. In this episode, Sean and Andrew dig into the 2026 report, which landed with striking timing as the opening weeks of 2026 seem determined to validate its most pressing warnings. Geoeconomic confrontation has rocketed to the top of short-term risks—up eight positions from last year—while misinformation and societal polarization follow close behind. But the long view tells a different story: environmental concerns dominate the ten-year horizon, with extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth's systems claiming the top spots. What makes this conversation particularly rich is the exploration of how different people see risk differently—younger respondents prioritize inequality and misinformation, while those over 40 fixate on geopolitical tensions. Regional perspectives diverge even more dramatically; AI risks that loom large in the US barely register in Brazil or Chile. The hosts wrestle with a fundamental tension: our brains evolved to handle immediate, visible threats, not slow-moving catastrophes or interconnected global systems. Reports like this serve as a kind of signal / trend analysis and foresight—a way to aggregate signals we can't perceive individually. The episode isn't about doom; it's an invitation to ask better questions about what these signals mean for you, your community, and the institutions that might still help us navigate what's coming.

WEF' 2026 Global Risk Report [web]

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Modem Futura is a production of the Future of Being Human initiative at Arizona State University. Be sure to subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows. To learn more about the Future of Being Human initiative and all of our other projects visit - https://futureofbeinghuman.asu.edu

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Host Bios:

Sean M. Leahy, PhD - ASU Bio
Sean is an an internationally recognized technologist, futurist, and educator innovating humanistic approaches to emerging technology through a Futures Studies approach. He is a Foresight Catalyst for the Future of Being Human Initiative and Research Scientist for the School for the Future of Innovation in Society and Senior Global Futures Scholar with the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory at Arizona State University.

Andrew Maynard, PhD - ASU Bio
Andrew is a scientist, author, thought leader, and Professor of Advanced Technology Transitions in the ASU School for the Future of Innovation in Society. He is the founder of the ASU Future of Being Human initiative, Director of the ASU Risk Innovation Nexus, and was previously Associate Dean in the ASU College of Global Futures.

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