This is my conversation with Will Thomson of Massif Capital, a long-short fund in real assets, and particularly the “sectors most important to a low carbon economy: Energy, Basic Materials and Industrials.” It complements a written Q&A on the firm's process and thematic outlook.
A few highlights:
- Will is fairly bearish on the current setup of a stable, globalized world. He believes we’re moving from a highly integrated world to a multi-polar one in which “spheres of influence” play a much greater role and affect commodities and trade. Energy and food are example sectors in which nations will increasingly to protect their own interests and create resilience.
- “What comes next is going to be very different from the past 30 years. And it’s going to be very good, I think, for real assets and natural resources.”
- “We're gonna see a fundamental re-working of trade flows along different geopolitical lines.”
- Political acumen will become more important for management teams. (An anecdote from Disney on its philosophy operating abroad: “We always ask, ‘how does it reflect on the Mouse?’”)
- The collapse of the USSR led to a decline in Russia’s industrial capacity relative to its commodity production, leaving global commodity markets well supplied. That stability has come to an end.
- Europe’s decarbonatization efforts could go into overdrive and lead to attractive long-term opportunities among utilities and industrials.
- Will doesn’t believe he can forecast commodity cycles but his best guess is that we’re in the "first third."
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