Navigating Off-Year Elections

On this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck explores the frustrations of the “mainstream middle” in red states and why Democrats can’t seem to reach them, even as discontent with the country grows. From the poisonous information ecosystem that radicalizes voters to the outsized influence of social media and big tech money in Washington, the conversation digs into how extremism thrives while moderation is punished. Chuck also examines the rise of independents, the possibility of a third-party shake-up, and how redistricting battles in California, Missouri, and Georgia could reshape the political map. With major races in New Jersey and Virginia looming, and Democrats struggling to find the right message, the episode highlights both the dangers and the opportunities in an increasingly unsettled political landscape.

Then, Chuck sits down with Brian Bengs, who challenged John Thune in South Dakota and is running for senate as an independent, and Todd Achilles, an independent from Idaho, to explore what it really means to run outside the two-party system. They open up about why they chose independence, the challenges of campaigning in red states where the word “Democrat” is a nonstarter, and the dysfunction they see as the product of both parties. From tariffs hurting farmers to the growing cost of attention in politics, the conversation highlights how America’s political and economic systems reward division and extremism over pragmatism and compromise.

The discussion also tackles the bigger picture: whether the Republican Party could split between MAGA and traditional conservatives, why democracy no longer serves as a pressure release valve, and how corporate power and money in politics further erode trust. Bengs and Achilles share lessons from Ross Perot’s run, their views on immigration reform, and the importance of building bipartisan relationships in an age where the middle is punished. For them, independence isn’t just about rejecting partisanship—it’s about offering voters an alternative path forward in a system that too often feels broken.

Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 states that could elect an independent candidate to the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Introduction

02:00 There is a mainstream middle in red states, but Dems can’t reach them

03:00 Feeling terrible about the state of the country, don’t see a path out

04:30 We have a poisonous information ecosystem that radicalizes people

05:15 Social media is poisoning the well, but big tech doesn’t shoulder blame

06:30 When algorithms curate content, it makes the platform a publisher 

08:00 Public schools finally starting to ban phones in classrooms

09:00 The phones are toxic for adults too, not just kids

11:00 Big tech companies have saturated D.C. with money to avoid regulation

13:00 The administration is speaking in the language of the red scare

13:45 Bipartisanship hasn’t been good for Donald Trump

14:30 The fastest growing political party is “no party”

15:45 The two major parties need a time out in order to course correct

16:45 Spencer Cox can’t succeed in MAGA, but would be a great leader

18:00 A third party scare could sober up the two major parties

19:45 The one commonality between the parties is internet radicalization

21:30 We need a moderate temperament to lead the country

22:45 Our information ecosystem punishes moderation

25:00 It could be a tough year for incumbents

26:45 The big redistricting fight brewing in California

28:00 There are 3 big money entities trying to get CA voters to vote no

28:45 California voters are educated and want the redraw to be temporary

30:00 Missouri redistricting law could go before voters and be repealed

31:30 California Democrats have been very organized

33:00 Democrats’ messaging problem over redistricting

35:00 The Georgia Democratic primary for governor is fascinating

37:15 GA governor primary could be bellwether for progressive vs moderate

38:00 Big money pouring into NJ and Virginia races

39:30 Virginia AG race will show whether law & order politics will be effective

41:45 Trump conceding the NYC mayor’s race to Mamdani

42:45 Jeffries in a tough spot, can’t be seen embracing a socialist 

45:45 Brian Bengs & Todd Achilles join the Chuck ToddCast 

47:15 Why are you running and why as an independent? 

48:30 Someone needed to challenge John Thune in SD 

49:30 Voters in red states hear "Democrat" and tune out despite agreement 

50:45 We have huge levels of debt, division and dysfunction 

51:45 70% of Idahoans identify as independent 

52:30 Democrats haven't provided a counter message in red states 

54:45 Will the MAGA and traditional wings of the Republican party split? 

56:30 Trump's tariffs hurting farmers, can they be won over? 

58:00 Republican leaders get in trouble for "not being MAGA enough" 

59:15 Tariffs and market concentration are squeezing farmers 

1:01:15 What does "caucusing on your own" look like? 

1:03:15 Deny both parties a majority and independents are swing votes 

1:04:00 Is Thune's leadership an impediment to your candidacy? 

1:05:00 The status quo dysfunction is a product of both parties 

1:06:15 The information ecosystem punishes the middle & incrementalism 

1:08:00 Attention is incredibly expensive for candidates 

1:09:30 The attentional incentive structures reward extremism 

1:11:15 The importance of meeting voters in person 

1:12:15 How did we get to the point where political violence isn't shocking? 

1:13:15 Democracy is supposed to be a pressure release valve, but it isn't working 

1:14:15 Talking to the voter who prioritizes economics over democracy 

1:15:30 We need to fix democracy to fix other issues 

1:16:30 There's a "race to blame" in wake of Kirk shooting 

1:17:45 Corporations are pushing their operation costs onto taxpayers 

1:19:15 Guardrails on the private sector have been chipped away at 

1:20:45 The Big Beautiful Bill will shutter rural hospitals 

1:23:00 How can we make money in politics a salient voting issue? 

1:24:45 Lessons that can be learned from Ross Perot's run? 

1:27:15 Pragmatic immigration requires border security and path to citizenship 

1:29:30 Congress more worried about their own security than deescalation 

1:30:30 The importance of building bipartisan relationships 

1:32:30 What 2 senators would you most look forward to working with if elected 

1:33:45 Favorite Democratic and Republican president? 

1:35:30 Eisenhower was the closest to an independent of any modern president 

1:36:15 Military service doesn't lend itself to partisanship

1:39:00 ToddCast Top 5 states most likely to elect an independent to the senate 

1:40:15 #1 & #2 - Vermont & Alaska 

1:41:15 #3 Minnesota 

1:42:45 #4 Arizona 

1:43:30 #5 Florida 

1:45:00 Runner ups 

1:46:15 Ask Chuck 

1:46:30 Is it possible for a candidate to run as a uniter in the current climate? 

1:51:30 At congressional hearings, are the subjects provided questions in advance? 

1:54:15 The importance of presenting multiple viewpoints in a fractured ecosystem 

1:57:45 Instances of a political death being used to attack other side so soon?

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