How to Think Rationally About Probability and Uncertainty and Risk

4min Snip

00:00

Play full episode

Summary

Transcript

Episode notes

We suffer from the hubrous problem of or overestimating our knowledge exactly. We need to reclaim those things for ourselves, and we need to be able to think about them. Imet in my book, i have my heroes, the amphecists, whosus wantet to do with the maximum they could with our theories. And whenever oneever we listen to them, guess what? We get the trouble.

Nassim Taleb talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the financial crisis, how we misunderstand rare events, the fragility of the banking system, the moral hazard of government bailouts, the unprecedented nature of really, really bad events, the contribution of human psychology to misinterpreting probability and the dangers of hubris. The conversation closes with a discussion of religion and probability.