Humanoids: tech excitement and miscalibrated expectations

Ryan Gariepy is the co-founder and former CTO of Clearpath Robotics and Otto Motors, acquired by Rockwell Automation for $600M+ in 2023. He bootstrapped the company for five years with only $300K in funding, reached profitability in 18 months, and spent 14 years building mobile robotics platforms that became the industry standard for research and industrial automation.

(If you’re looking for inspiration and lessons from other founders, Founders in Arms is hosting a founders roundtable with Rajat Suri, Immad Akhund, and Max Mullen next Wed Jan 14th at Mercury HQ. Discussing war stories and sharing lessons with a group of founders, as part of Founders-in-Arms podcast. Will be food and drinks. Capacity strictly limited at 50 so apply early if you’re interested: https://luma.com/dk97inyk )

What you'll learn:

1. Why robotics is a systems discipline where progress stacks rather than explodes
2. How to bootstrap a hardware company to $10M revenue before raising venture capital
3. Why robotics follows 20-50% sustained growth for decades vs. software's boom-bust cycles
4. The "promise problem" with humanoid robots and why form factor shapes user expectations
5. How manufacturing in Canada (not China) became a strategic advantage for Clearpath
6. Why founders overestimate 2-year progress but underestimate 10-year impact in robotics
7. The real economics of humanoid robots: $20K cost becomes $80K landed price
8. How robotics investment differs from software: less competitive, more defensible
9. Why experience compounds in hardware but expires in software careers
10. Investment criteria for robotics: engineering risk vs. technical risk and go-to-market strategy

In this episode, we cover:

(00:00) Introduction and live event announcement

(03:29) Ryan's background: Clearpath Robotics and Otto Motors

(04:06) Building two brands under one company

(06:29) The 14-year journey: challenges and non-linear growth

(07:11) Bootstrapping robotics when "nobody thought you could make money"

(08:17) Reaching profitability in 18 months with research customers

(10:28) Building robotics platforms for MIT, universities, and research labs

(11:03) Manufacturing in Canada vs. outsourcing to Asia

(15:05) Reconnecting after 20 years: the Waterloo entrepreneurship connection

(16:17) Working at Kiva Systems (now Amazon Robotics)

(18:10) Why robotics is more exciting now than ever in history

(19:21) Robotics as systems discipline: no single breakthrough technology

(21:22) The overhype cycle and realistic expectations

(22:14) Software explodes then crashes; robotics compounds for decades

(23:36) Why hardware is harder but more mission-driven

(25:27) The talent pool advantage: people irrationally love hardware

(27:30) Physical AI and real-world impact beyond software optimization

(28:07) Humanoid robots: incredible tech, miscalibrated expectations

(32:41) The "promise problem": form factors make promises to users

(34:35) Consumer robotics examples: Matic cleaning robot

(35:59) Asia leading in restaurant and airport robotics deployment

(38:37) Training challenges and precursor technologies needed

(39:20) China's role in robotics and humanoid development

(41:08) Venture capital structures forcing "ridiculous things" in robotics

(42:36) Robotics for entertainment vs. utility as consumer use case

(43:52) Imad's robotics investments: Embark, Gecko Robotics, vertical AVs

(45:23) Why robotics is less competitive than software

(47:21) Operational design domain and technology risk assessment

(48:19) The AV journey: Waymo, Zoox, and the importance of experience

(49:39) Experience compounds in hardware, expires in software

(50:31) Rapid fire: biggest mistake, following gut over charisma

(51:47) Founder inspiration: Rodney Brooks

(52:20) Uncomfortable feedback at Honda co-op job

(53:17) Investment criteria: engineering risk, go-to-market, team understanding