Forecasts as Hypotheses, Not Trades

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shift that favors trend following. In this episode, he challenges the illusion of control baked into most trading systems: why backtests offer comfort, not readiness; why precision breeds fragility; and why the future isn’t something to predict, but something being built in real time. This is a conversation about trading with humility, designing for persistence, and letting go of the need to know. The signal is now.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening and the start of 2026

03:21 - A fragmented global order and what it means for trend following

08:55 - Why coordination fades and imbalances persist

12:41 - Early market signals and unusual positioning

14:34 - 2025 in review, concentration and recovery

17:36 - Familiar pain and familiar payoffs in trend following

23:00 - Timeframes, diversification, and ensemble thinking

28:37 - Brakes and acceleration, trading the now

40:58 - The future as unfinished, not hidden

49:54 - Prediction versus participation

53:53 - Optimization, comfort, and hidden fragility

01:02:49 - Predetermined response and process control

01:05:30 - Closing reflections and looking ahead

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

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2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

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