Yes, i meantat when when the us. Intelligence started reporting, i think there was lega new york times newsalert in december that said they thought, you know, intelligence thought that pruden might be invading ucrade next year. I started looking into it, and the people who are a sort of sceptic of american foreign policy, american intelligence community. A lot of them said, this is nonsense. I didn't think it was a nonsense tat do. I've been posting my predictions. I've always been about ten, 15 % ahead of wherever metaculus was on whether a podn was going to invade ukrane. And, you know, there there was a couple of reasons for hat mean, first of all, like people say they don't trust the intelligence community. This is a specific thing that's either going to happen or not. It. You know, when there was the things that russia was putting ties for killing american troops in afghanistan, that was something that happened in the past that nobody could ever verify. So i was sceptical of that. And it's right to be skeptical that this is, you know, something you can verify or not with satellite technology, ah, that they have, you know, a hundred something thousands troops a and they say there's going to be invasion. And so, you know, thats that, you know, you start rather, you start with tere ok, like this is more credible, ah, than the typical thing that they're going to predict. And then i looked at the strategic situation that a pon was facing. There's a couple of really good articles that influenced me here. There was one by a guy named ob roblee. He's a professor of international relations. I think, maybe the us. Air force as university of the us. Air force or something. I forget. We'll put the links in there. But he had a really good essay, a one by anatole carlin, who's a russian nationalist, who has a substack, who's written about this. And one by adam tos, whos economist, o rot about the nstitution and all thes. All these guys, they thought, you know, there was something to this, or they heavily implied, i don't kno bout twoos, but carlin explicitly, and then also a a roblee a. And the idea is, look, if prudent does nothing, a ukrane is just going to be going more and more to the west. I mean, that theothey're eventually gong to be a member of nato. They're ging americans a're oing to put troops there. Andthen carland a serl mis a little bit to this. And i am, i whent i did my own research about sort of what's happening with a, the russian language in ukrane. So ukrane is basically banning russian language media. Not officially banning russian language mea, but saying, whatever you produce in russian has to produce like something in ukranian too, which apparently willshet ous, just a plot to shut down a russian language media, a russian language education. They're geting rid of that. Ah, they are a, you know, s ow t p stations for the russians. A, a for the the pro russian party ukraine. A, and so like y. This is, you know, this is a serious effort of uniforce cultural assimilation. It is get an attempt to basically orient them tords west forever, and not give russia any chance, ah, toyo, not to have any political influence at all within the country. You know, if you think russians care about the nationalist aspect, they care about the future of russian language speakers and russian culture, and if they care about the security aspect of nato, a, it made sense to me that there was, there was good reason for pun to invade the doing nothing. I mean, was things were just getting into worse time, overtime. And then probably goes into a sort of a a, the military technology. So the talks about a, thea war between armenian asarba john, which showed the the, the a usefulness of drones for going after tanks. Russia has the tanks rights. Krane is basically ther building their drone capabilities. A, you know, the they started out ith, you know, nothing in 20 14 as far as their army goes. They've been consistently building. So on the cultural front, like, you know, and on the sort of military front, things are just getngo worse and worse for russia. Overtime. A, and so the question is, you know, what do you do? You you, you, andyou know, maybe o tell the us that we're very serious and were we're going to have to come to some agreement here, or we're going to use military force. But that if the us. Doesn't do that, and who knows, maybe p hadd decided this already, and that's why they made maximals demands, because they knew that the us. Was incapable of making any kind of deal, or unwilling to make any kind of deal. A, but whether, you know, it was a bluff or whether it was yo to an attempt to settle it. I mean, i think they hadi a bluff doesn't work, or the the threat doesn't work, you have to go in. Ah. So i think that's where we're at now. So this, this is why, from the beginning, you know, i thought this was potentially leading to disasterand i think i've been right so far. A by ya ge no gois tat dis i make sense to you,

ye. I mean, i'm up dating priors now, because i thought this whole thing was just a kind of a western op for lon time, you know, mainly aimed at the germans, to try to get the germans to drop norstrin too. And a, you know, maybe trying to egg puten on into doing something, kind of baiting him into doing something, so they could really drop the hammer on him with sanctions. That's kind of my model for what was going on. But after hearing that speech which bruten gave his own countryi i sort of feel like there are some pretty deep seated, a, issues here that he's not going to let go of. And so, ye, i think i think the big winter here is probably china.