The Confirmation Bias

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Folfool by randomes that hay, what? What am i all about? And eri dis im thinking, how can i link ever i've been thinking about for the last x number of years. D then i realize, he you know, it is the confirmation bias. The confirmation bias is simply not taking seriously what you don't see and taking more seriously what you see. In less primitive environments, saye for example, if you ere don't see a huge elephant, you're ok, ok. Atars are not going to be a huge elephant. But in a non-primitive environment, you will have to wait much longer before drawing consequence. Fat tales mean

Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. Taleb's contention is that we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.