Macro crypto narratives and investing via first principles, with Jordi Alexander
UpOnly: Chats with Crypto Experts
Is a Blow Off Top Possible Anymore?
The blow off top happens when nobody believes we can go down like itjus, you know, that concept of going down gets eliminated. We've had a lot of like, these scary dips that all the major participants have some fear in them. So i'm not sure we get a blow off top is this time around. I think if thereis nothi in the horizon and you go through like, a really hard time, that's kind of what we saw in may.
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Show Notes
Crypto Intro
– Started off as a professional poker player
– Then was working as a trader
– Was in San Francisco during 2016, impossible not to hear about crypto
– Was trading bonds and gold
– Then went 80/20 gold/bitcoin, then 50/50, now just 100% Bitcoin
– Gold is just always $1800 lol
DOGE Debate
– @gametheorizing debated Su Zhu on if Doge could be real money
– main take – the centralization of ownership just makes it impossible
– Liquidity has been a huge reason for these meme run ups
Liquidity
– Low liquidity changes everyones hopes
– Once we’re in a bear market, everything will likely make more sense as low liquidity drives shitcoins way down
– There will be backlash to extreme wealth inequality that’s created from crypto wealth
– Like trillionaires based off of a new internet will not sit well with people
Cobie Wealth Talk
– Humans create more wealth over time
– Bitcoin creates a fixed supply of money
– In the end, won’t people be incentivized to not work or invest and just hold?
– game: “Cobie is absolutely right, in the end we’ll likely get something like inflation around 2%. Bitcoin will have to change”
– game: “We have a saying in poker that a sucker will soon be parted from his money”
– Cobie: “It may be a bit cynical but I feel like wealth always centralizes”
– game: “You’re absolutely right. The wealth inequality is huge now and its growing. Something’s going to have to change”
Regulation
– Ledger: “It would be simpler if you could “call a spade a spade” and let these tokens be a security if that’s their best use case, instead of making founders pigeon hole their tokens utility into something that makes less sense”
2022 Theses
– game: “If you have any dog coins you should sell them”
– “Come January we still have a bit more of a bull run”
– “Only time the bull run stops is when there’s no more QE, rates get raised, which is maybe later next year”
– so basically all this money gets sucked out, rates go up and holding cash feels better than it does now
– The mid tier NFTs are not keeping a bid
Ponzis
– Back when this started, people would say “Bitcoin’s a ponzi”
– Some things are more ponzi than others
– Basically, need real value creation for something to not be a “ponzi”
– Cobie: “Can you explain how OHM works?”
– game: “OHM is also a ponzi. The tokenomics is much more complex which hides it, so like it was a ponzi but now holds all these other coins”
– Ledger: “Is governance enough?”
– game: “absolutely”
– Cobie: “Can you explain how HEX works?”
– game: “HEX was ahead of its time. It’s a very complex ponzi.”
– Cobie: “If you are early to a ponzi then its great right… what would you say to people joining ponzis now?”
– game: “in a liquidity crunch, the ponzis go away, and they get closer to NAV valuation. There is real value in community and people will pay for that, so that’s an end game for some of them. Same with NFTs”
Web3
– Feels like there are a bunch of random VCs coming up
– You don’t just “decentralize” everything like “decentralized Uber”
– game thinks we get something more like web2.5 where celebrities and others start using NFTs as pfps and stuff
– game: “crypto is the best casino. Like we have Bitcoin store of value, L1s with smart contracts, then casinos”
– Web3 is kinda like companies just having tokens to incentivize and provide rewards
– game: “Once you have an NFT world where you can use them it’s not a ponzi anymore”
– Ledger: “Tokenization of communities, with VIP access and other stuff, is a good use of tokens and NFTs”
Trading
– Ledger: “There are people for whom this year has been absolutely stupid, just chasing the pump, marrying now bags and not holding any Bitcoin”
– Shitcoins up or down by end of 2022?
– Cobie: “idk. if it tops in march or may then maybe up, if it tops in january then probably down”
Scenario That Extends Cycle?
– realistically probably not
– will likely trickle down to smaller caps
– only thing that pushes it is if Fed keeps printing/ rates low
CT Drama
– Su Zhu super dunking on Ethereum then buying it, using followers as liquidity, basically become a super villain – is this a pro or con for Three Arrows Capital?
– game: “Completely depends on founders. Reminds me of Bobby Axelrod on Billions”
Feds in Crypto
– game talked with Su Zhu in depth about future of ETH if it was a $10T asset
– it will become very political, countries forcing votes that benefits them, etc
– only makes sense Feds are in crypto now lol
ETH as Money
– Who cares what you call it?
– The “ultra sound money” meme is awful
– Why would you want deflationary money?
– *insert various examples of why it doesn’t matter if you call it money e.g. if you buy a million dollar house is your house money? who cares!
End Game of USD?
– It’s honestly super strong
– If there’s no geopolitical power change it just stays in control
Blow Off Top?
– Thought there was gonna be one
– Used to be 60% chance, now more like 20% chance
Notes by Kevin
Music by GiovanniPickle
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