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The Pre-Gosian Mutiny
The most shocking thing about the pre-gosian mutiny wasn't so much the vulnerability of the regime, but how vulnerable Putin felt. A confident authoritarian leader would have crushed the mutiny without a second thought. Instead Putin did a runner, he was clearly shaken and I think his aura of confidence has completely gone - it won't come back. The regime, I believe, will survive for some time yet,. And I think the war with Ukraine is likely to be long drawn out and extremely difficult.