The Importance of Predicting Future Knowledge

You can never rule out that the asteroid is actually inhabited by aliens who will divert it without us doing anything could happen. We have good explanations for why that won't be so that doesn't mean that they are perfectly reliable but that's what we have to go on our best explanation. Things like things that are called existential risks by people who want to divert more creativity into combating them are not like that, he says. The last line of an argument makes certain assumptions about humans or about in the case of AGI  the AGI is being people but there even then it's humans and people that when it's making arguments about aren't very reliable.