Long-Term Interest Rate Trend History

Mark Thornton argues that interest is a core price that coordinates time, investment, and growth, and that the Federal Reserve has turned it into an administered number. Mark warns the long-run trend may be turning: bigger states and debts, weaker anti-inflation ideology, and aging populations imply longer, higher for longer. What are the implications? Keep that 2% Covid-era mortgage, expect poor long-bond returns and lower real equity performance, and look for commodities to fare relatively better. Gold’s surge shows some investors already see the shift.

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