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THINKING, FAST & SLOW (DANIEL KAHNEMAN) - Listening books
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The Illusion of Validity
In 1984, Amos and his friend Richard Faylor visited a Wall Street firm. They found their forecasts were better than blind guesses, but not by much. The dismal truth about the quality of our predictions had no effect on how we evaluated candidates. We knew as a general fact that our predictions were little better than random guesses,. But we continued to feel and act as if each of our specific predictions was valid.
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