Shifting Political Momentum

Speaker 2
And she picks her spots. I know. And that was the spot. Yep. And you could just feel the passion there because the left
Speaker 1
and the media, they left, oh, where's Melania? Does she support her? Are you kidding? And not just that. If you watch them interact last night, I've said this to a while to people who question any, whenever that comes up, I'm like, watch them interact. It was the smile on her face. And she was so proud of her husband. All right. Time is short because I only have so much time. Let's get into your wheelhouse, the state of the race. Where are we now? Right now?
Speaker 2
You think back, you look, and about a month ago, folks were telling us that Donald Trump was behind. We didn't really feel that. We didn't see it in the polls. But if you look at the media polls and, you know, I'm not really allowed to talk about the internal polls, but look at the media polls and not a lot of movement, but now basically all the battleground states, Donald Trump is ahead in all the battleground states. And it's the kind of movement that you see and you always want at the end of a race, you always want the momentum to be on your side. And with a week to go, all the signs, all the signals are not just pointing to Donald Trump, but they're pointing to the Republicans in these all important Senate and congressional battleground races where he is doing significantly better.
Speaker 1
Can I ask you that real quick? So I feel good about the Senate. I get asked a lot about the House. You guys keep up with that because of the clients you have. How do you feel about maintaining the House? Look,
Speaker 2
I think what makes it tough is the Democrats. And this hasn't really been reported on a lot. They have drastically outspent Republicans. Like one of the races I'm working on, he's a good friend of mine, Mike Lawler, who I've known for probably the last 10, 15 years in New York 17. This is a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 14 points. Joe Biden in 2020 won the district by 10 points. And you really have one of these squad radical left-wing Democrats in Mondaire Jones that there's no way this guy should be in the race. And Mike Lawler's ahead. He's ahead by every single measure, but yet he's still outspending Mike Lawler by significant amounts of money. And Mike Lawler is one of the best Republican fundraisers.
Speaker 1
So he hustles to that guy. You can't outwork Mike Lawler.
Speaker 2
I'm telling you that nobody works as hard as Mike Lawler. He's always out there and he fits the district perfectly in terms of the issues. But again, they have limitless amounts of money. And, you know, we all know that that Nancy Pelosi is the one pulling the strings, even though Hakeem Jeffries has the title. The reason why Nancy Pelosi has the power, she raises all the money for all these Democrats. And I think it's kind of, you know, who knows where all this money is coming from when it's all said and done as they run it through Act Blue and everything else that's going on. But there is not one, whether it's a battleground Senate race that I'm working on or a battleground congressional where the Republican is outspending the Democrat. And usually in most of these districts, you have somebody like Carrie Lake. Carrie Lake, the Democrats have still, they've outspent her by over $100 million. And yet she's still in the ballgame here at the end. She's within the margin of error in the last media poll that I just saw. All
Speaker 1
right. So it seems to me that down the stretch, I mean, Kamala Harris is going to the ellipse, the National Mall tomorrow, the site of where Trump's January 6th rally was. Clearly that they think that this issue of democracy gives them some legs. So this is how I think the race is framed. This is Donald Trump talking about the economy, inflation, immigration, border security versus her talking about abortion and democracy? Is that a fair and what issue said is winning out?
Speaker 2
Yeah. And don't forget Nazi and fascism, which even you've had, you know, Kamala Harris's super PAC is saying, don't do that. Don't go there. Right. literally insulting the intelligence of the American people. Because Sean, you laid it out. The problem is for the Democrats, the issues that the American people care about most, inflation, the economy, border security, crime, Donald Trump has significant advantages over the Democrats. And I thought, look, you look at the public polls. It's a bipartisan poll, the Wall Street Journal poll, where Kamala Harris has a 54% disapproval rating in that poll, and Donald Trump has a 52% approval rating. So what that's all about is on the issues that people care about most, Donald Trump has a significant advantage. And if you look at his favorables, you look at his job approval rating, it's about 15 points higher than it was four years ago versus Joe Biden. Because what's happened, they've lived in Kamala Harris's world and they lived in Donald Trump's world not that long ago. They like Donald Trump's world much better.
Speaker 1
Yeah, well, I thought last night he talks about this proposal to give tax breaks to people who care for an elderly person at home. I'm announcing a new policy today that I will support a tax credit for family caregivers who take care of a parent a loved one. It's about time that they were recognized, right? He keeps hitting on issues, right? The no tax on tip, the no tax on social security, the no tax on unemployment, writing off the cost of a new American car, right? And it's all in his, it just seems to me all of these issues are exactly things that people care about. Now, that big thing last night, I know it got overshadowed a little because the media didn't want to cover it, but this no tax on caring for a person at home, huge. Those got to test fantastically.
Speaker 2
Sean, we've all been there. And I remember when the issue came up where he was going to say no taxes on tips. When he came out with that, you know, the polling team, myself, I'm talking to my brother, John, Tony Fabrizio. We're like, did we test this? And we're like, no, he talked, he was talking to his staff out of the hotel in Las Vegas because he's saying we shouldn't have taxes on tips. And he said, that's Donald Trump. You know what he doesn't get credit for? And you know this, having worked so closely with him, he talks to people all day and he's a great listener. So this is him talking to friends and saying, Hey, you know what? It's really hard when you have to take care of, you know, an older loved one, we've all been there. And that's, that's Donald Trump because they're talking about, okay, how do you make childcare more affordable? How do you make home healthcare more affordable? And he knows the best way to do it isn't through the government, but it's through basically the family. And let's try to make it easier on the family to be able to do that.
Speaker 1
Yeah. You know, we were mentioning the Madison Square Garden lineup last night, right? When you guys look at favorability and people who move people, whatever, I feel like the use of surrogates has been better on the Trump side, right? So he got Bobby Kennedy, Tulsi Gabbard, Elon Musk, amongst other, Dr. Phil last night. And I kind of think that those aren't necessarily traditional. I mean, obviously Bobby's political, right? But more people follow him because of Maha stuff, wellness issues, health issues than they do for politics because he never had run for politics. And so I think that they bring their constituency over to Trump, whereas the Harris surrogates are inherently political people. So, I mean, do you guys look at that in terms of who is more effective surrogate wise?
Speaker 2
Without a doubt. And look at it. She's bringing out all these establishment types, the people that are responsible for the failures. You know, you talk about RFK Jr. I come from a family of Kennedy Democrats, and most New Yorkers back in the day, they were these conservative Catholic Democrats. The only picture, I say the only picture in my grandparents' house who wasn't related to me was Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Robert F. Kennedy and John F. Kennedy. And while they're talking to all these establishment Hollywood types that say, you know, this is a change election and she's talking to the people that have created the problems. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has all these Democratic surrogates out there. He's got black folks. He's got brown folks. And I'm telling you, I'm telling you right now, one of the historic things of this election is going to be, Sean, and the reason why Donald Trump is doing so well in Nevada, and the reason why he's doing so well in Arizona is because of Hispanic voters. And I'm telling you, black and brown folks are literally going to save America in this election. I truly believe that. And the reason why, you know where Donald Trump's up the most in the battleground states, in Georgia, in North Carolina,
Speaker 1
why? Because of black voters. All right. I want to get into the battleground states real quick. I want to ask you though, the media is obsessed with the gender gap, right? Men, a lot of the media strategy seems to be focused on young men, Kamala going after women. Talk about where the gender gap right now is.
Speaker 2
Yep. And you know who has the real gender gap? Kamala Harris and the Democrats, because men are abandoning them in droves. And again, they're seeing one of the things I always hear in the focus groups, when we do focus groups among black men, what black men will say to you is, how come they're taking care of illegal immigrants? How come they're given their welfare benefits? And meanwhile, they're doing nothing to help us. And you see it, you see a lot of times when they do the focus groups on TV, these same black men will say, hey, when Donald Trump was president, I was more safe. When Donald Trump was president, I had more money in my pocket. Donald Trump wants to give me school choice because it's like I say to people, I say, why is Donald Trump getting all these black and brown folks to vote for him? I said, for same reason why white middle class Americans are voting for him, because they think he's better on these issues that they really care about. And that's the interesting part. You set it up before. She's going to be doing this establishment type rally, you know, January 6th, Nazi, fascist, all that other kind of stuff. The American people have moved on for that. It's about their personal benefit. Who do you think can make your life better? And what you're seeing is people, I talked to some of my son's friends yesterday. They spent seven and a half, these are guys, 25, 26 years old. They were in that line for seven and a half hours. They are not going to sites to go see Donald Trump. And I'm like, was it worth it? And they said it was unbelievable. They love the rally.
Speaker 1
And again, this is Donald Trump giving the American people hope. I think so. Let me ask you this. There is an analysis out there where you put the chart up that says if the polls are off like they were in 2022, she wins. If the polls were off like they were in 2024, he wins big time. So which one is right?
Speaker 2
Look, I'm going to say this and you might be surprised because I'm supposed to say all those media polls stink. The pollsters have gotten a little bit better, the media pollsters. They're still not great. You know, the major thing they did, whether it was 2016, back in 2020, they were significantly undersampling Republicans. They're doing a little bit better on that. But what I always tell people, and look, Sean, you know me as a pollster. We've been working on campaigns together for years. Forget about the polls. That's what I'm telling people. Forget about the polls. Turn out the vote. Vote early. What these polls say is Donald Trump has the momentum. But look, at this point in time, when Mitt Romney was running against Barack Obama, Mitt Romney probably would have won. But then in the last week, you had Hurricane Sandy. You had Barack Obama was hugging Chris Christie on the beat, and the momentum changed, and he looked bipartisan. He looked like he was in charge. A lot can change in the last week of the campaign. The Obama campaign was really good at turning out low propensity Democratic voters. That's what we need to do at this point. And look, you can't, we can't relax. I tell people, don't bring one person, don't bring two people. You got to bring 10 people to the polls and especially people that may not ordinarily vote because right now it's not just a persuasion game with those few undecideds. And trust me, there are some undecideds that are out there, but now it's a turnout game. We've got to make sure that we turn our folks out. And what she's going to do, she's going to do tomorrow. She's going to be attacking Americans, saying that you're a Nazi, you're a fascist, if you disagree with her on the issues. And I think her super PAC is right. It's going to backfire on us.
Speaker 1
I'm glad you said that. I said that on this morning meeting every morning with Mark Halpern and Dan Turntine. And I said, problem is this is the deplorables of 2016. She's insulting people on the right, which gets me and you and everyone else fired up saying, all right, let's just show you you're wrong. And I don't think it has to convert anybody. The people who believe that already are voting for him. You mentioned a couple of battleground states and how they were doing of the seven, do you think that Georgia, like, is your analysis based on what you said a minute ago, should I interpret that as Georgia's the best one of the seven for him to win?
Speaker 2
I feel really good about Georgia. And one of the reasons- Better than Arizona? One of the reasons I feel good about Georgia, and by the way, I feel good about Arizona for two different reasons. Georgia, because of what we're doing among black voters. And I think he's going to keep that percentage of the black vote. It's one of the reasons why the Republicans did as well as they did in Florida last time was because they did well with black voters. I always worry about Fulton County and the kind of shenanigans that go on there in Fulton County. And look, people ask me, why are you worried? You know, you got Brian Kemp there and people are watching this time and there's a lot more ballot security. These are the same people that tried to put Donald Trump in jail. So that's why I worry about Fulton County. Arizona, what makes me optimistic about Arizona, isn't just what I'm seeing in the polls. But right now, when it comes to early voting, Republicans are plus seven in terms of, you know, what that means to a layperson is we're having seven percent more Republicans are turning out than Democrats. And what's happened down there is Arizona has gotten buried. Their quality of life has been destroyed by the open borders policies of not just Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, but also Katie Hopps. She's let it happen. Where Greg Abbott, right next door in Texas, has tried to fight back. In Arizona, they're just saying, come on in. And it's hurting all aspects of their quality of life. And they know it. And I'm telling you, I'm not guaranteeing victory in New Mexico, but I'm telling you. Oh, I want to get to that
Speaker 1
in a second. Oh, just hold on. But let me just, of the seven, obviously Georgia, Arizona feel good on. And I don't, I'm just saying, if you had to be worried of one of the seven, what one would you say? This is the one where I'm a little worried for a variety of reasons, what would that be? Is
Speaker 2
probably at the most, and it's a place I think we should win because I think public opinion is clearly on our side there, is Pennsylvania. And you're saying, well, why are you worrying about Pennsylvania? When I'm looking, and look, we're doing about 20 points better when it comes to the early vote compared to where we were last time. But we're still down by about 30 points there in terms of who the early votes are. Now, like I said, like, first of all, Dave McCormick is running an unbelievable Senate campaign. He is out of central casting in terms of that. He's way he's way better Bob Casey ever could. I mean, literally, he's a businessman. He's an American hero, Army Ranger, all that other kind of good stuff. And he's just been fantastic. But again, you worry about the things that go on in Philadelphia. And I was on the air on Newsmax at 9.30 at night on election night four years ago when they said they're stopping the count. I'm like, at 930 at night? It's like, what the heck is going on there? And look, forget about what went on there. They have a great ability to be able to manufacture these vote by mails in a place like Pennsylvania. So as the president says, we got to make it too big to rig. That's
Speaker 1
right. You mentioned New Mexico, four states that I think people are looking at, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia, and New Mexico. I have been preaching New Hampshire for a while. I got mocked for it. Now we got a poll, public poll showing him a 0.4, not a lot, but that's clearly within the margin error. And then he's going to New Mexico. How realistic are any of those four states?
Speaker 2
I think if we have the turnout that we think we have the ability to get, and if you look at the momentum here, and look, a place like New Hampshire, they've gotten killed with the higher energy costs because of the crazy policies of Kamala Harris. And they're also a very anti-tax state, as you know. But what's kind of happened in New Hampshire is unfortunately some of these folks have left Massachusetts. They go to New Hampshire because they have no income tax. And unfortunately, they bring some of the ways they vote with them. But look, I think both New Hampshire and New Mexico are very different because you're going to have a lot of these anti-tax voters in New Hampshire that are probably going to hopefully vote Republican this time. And then in a place like New Mexico, I think you're going to have a lot of Hispanics who, by the way, can't stand these open border policies of Kamala Harris, because they came here to be Americans.

Trump TAKES the Lead, What's Next? | Ep 311

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