The Importance of Uncertainty

4min Snip

00:00

Play full episode

Summary

Transcript

Episode notes

In an uncertain world, you have non-ergodic systems which are often complex and can break apart or collapse in unpredictable ways. That's why things like the 4% rule actually work pretty well in just estimating how much money you need for retirement. In something involving uncertainty, often you are better off just following rules of thumb because you're really just trying to avoid ruin.

In this episode we answer questions from MyContactInfo, Anonymous and Arun. We discuss a podcast and article about the concept of Ergodicity and how to apply it, a variation of the Golden Ratio portfolio from one of our listeners recently discussed in an interview, and the illusory benefits of dividend-paying stocks and related delusions.

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional links:

EconTalk Podcast on Ergodicity: Luca Dellanna on Risk, Ruin, and Ergodicity | EconTalk

Taylor Pearson Article on Ergodicity: Ergodicity: A Simple Explanation of Ergodic vs. Non-Ergodic (taylorpearson.me)

Picture Perfect Portfolios Article about a Golden Ratio-style portfolio and others: 100% Factor Focused Equities vs Diversification Reigns Supreme (pictureperfectportfolios.com)

Three Ben Felix Videos About the Irrelevance of Dividends:

The Irrelevance of Dividends - YouTube

The Relevance of Dividend Irrelevance - YouTube

Dividend Growth Investing - YouTube

Intel's 2023 Dividend Cut:

Intel cuts dividend to lowest since 2007 to save cash | Reuters

Intel slashes dividend by over 65%, to 12.5 cents (cnbc.com)