4min chapter

The Art of Manliness cover image

When to Quit

The Art of Manliness

CHAPTER

What Is Expected Value?

When we make a decision to quit or continue, we're using what's called expected value. Expected value simply put is if you compare the long run cost to the long run benefits, are you net positive? Right? So a very simple way to explain expected value is if we were betting on a coin flip and heads you win, tails I lose. And so when you win half the time, you're going to get two dollars - that means that's a one dollar long term win for you.

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