China's Strategic Blinks and Energy Decisions

Jay is joined by geopolitical analyst and forecaster George Friedman to unpack what President Trump really represents in the long arc of American history. We revisit George’s “vanilla president” thesis and why, personality aside, Trump’s project to dismantle the post-1945 world order was predictable and perhaps inevitable. We dig into the shift from global policeman back toward U.S. isolationism, the real story behind Venezuela and the U.S. military build-up in the Caribbean, and why a renewed Russia–Cuba pact makes the Florida Straits one of the most important choke points on Earth. George's Links: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/ https://x.com/George_Friedman Learn to invest alongside the top minds in commodities. Join The Commodity University today. CLICK: https://linkly.link/26yH8 Sign up for my free weekly newsletter at https://2ly.link/211gx Be part of our online investment community: https://cambridgehouse.com https://twitter.com/JayMartinBC https://www.instagram.com/jaymartinbc https://www.facebook.com/TheJayMartinShow https://www.linkedin.com/company/cambridge-house-international 00:00 – Intro 01:06 – Trump’s predictable project: dismantling the post-1945 order 04:21 – Hippie president? Peace, retrenchment & hot spots from Ukraine to Venezuela 11:50 – Isolationism vs global policeman: returning to America’s old norm 17:16 – How far should US intervention go – and when does it stop? 18:50 – Why 800 US bases when the Soviet threat is gone? 21:21 – Venezuela as a smokescreen: what’s really happening in the Caribbean? 22:01 – Cuba–Russia pact, Florida Straits & the Gulf trade choke point 26:32 – Monroe Doctrine 2.0, cartels & Russian meddling in Latin America 29:41 – Economic stakes of the Gulf of Mexico & Mississippi River 31:05 – Plausible deniability: why Washington leads with the drug war narrative 34:12 – Putin’s failed Ukraine gamble & giving him an off-ramp 48:06 – Why wars are sold on misleading narratives 53:28 – South China Sea, island chains & China’s geography problem 55:31 – China’s economic fragility, internal unrest & dependence on US markets 1:00:12 – The 40-year export superpower cycle: US, Japan, China 1:06:07 – Why China can’t invade Taiwan or break the island chain 1:07:29 – Rare earths, supply chains & how vulnerable is the US really? 1:14:07 – Did globalization blindside Washington and Wall Street? 1:17:28 – Term limits, FDR precedent & Trump running again 1:20:11 – Administrative state vs elected power: the constitutional paradox 1:24:02 – Roman Republic parallels Copyright © 2025 Cambridge House International Inc. All rights reserved.