Federal Reserve Dynamics and Trade Tariff Developments

2025 has been the Year of the Tariff. Since he took office, President Trump has unveiled aggressive tariffs on imports from foreign countries, reshaping U.S. trade policy, sending the markets on a roller-coaster ride, and causing uncertainty for companies of all types. Now a new deadline of August 1 looms that could bring higher tariffs on imports from dozens of countries. On this episode, host Mike Townsend is joined by Michelle Gibley, director of international research at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, for a timely discussion of tariffs—what's in place now, what's coming next, how they are being used to secure trade deals, and what the potential impact is on inflation, the economy, and the markets. Michelle shares her perspective on why markets reacted so sharply to the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements in April but have mostly ignored the tariff noise since then. They also discuss the ramifications for international stocks, why emerging markets have been outperforming U.S. markets, and where investors looking to expand their international allocation can find opportunities. 

Mike also provides updates from Washington on the Fed's decision to keep the federal funds rate steady, the latest on cryptocurrency legislation, and why a recent fight on Capitol Hill to claw back foreign aid funding could be a worrisome signal for this fall's effort to fund government operations and avert a disruptive government shutdown.

WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/WashingtonWise.

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Check out Michelle's recent articles: "Tariffs: Is the Worst Behind Us?" and "Benefits of Emerging Markets Diversification."

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

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Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. 

Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. 

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Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

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Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

Currency trading is speculative, volatile and not suitable for all investors.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

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The MSCI China Index captures large and mid cap representation across China A shares, H shares, B shares, Red chips, P chips and foreign listings (e.g. ADRs). The index covers about 85% of this China equity universe. Currently, the index includes Large Cap A and Mid Cap A shares represented at 20% of their free float adjusted market capitalization.

The MSCI Korea Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the South Korean market. The index covers about 85% of the Korean equity universe.

The MSCI India Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Indian market. The index covers approximately 85% of the Indian equity universe.

The MSCI Brazil Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Brazilian market. The index covers about 85% of the Brazilian equity universe.