Whatever

they tax us, we will tax them. John, how do you think Trump's speech to Congress might have been received by Chinese leaders? In

Beijing, if you talk to policymakers, there is a broad assumption amongst them that Trump is looking for a deal. That's reinforced by when President Trump talks about how great a relationship he has with President Xi Jinping. Trump telling Congress these things about more tariffs, more taxes, all of this stuff. I think they take it in stride and they're trying to figure out what they can do to get the best deal they can and what President Trump wants.

Do you think with these tariffs that we've seen so far, this trade war could escalate like it did in 2018? I

think the officialdom in Beijing expects things to get more heated. But I think Beijing is balancing that with the damage that President Trump is causing to America's relationship with other countries, Canada, Mexico, Europe, the global south. And I think Beijing sort of viewing it in a more holistic sense in that, yes, all these tariffs on Chinese goods are going to hit the economy and that is going to have a negative impact. But at the same time, maybe all of these actions by the Trump administration undermining the American partnerships and relationships that it has with countries around the world, maybe that creates more space for China to actually strengthen its trading relationships, links, its diplomatic relationships with all these other countries who have been distanced by the Trump administration. Well,

that would be a smart approach, right? When the door closes, you try to look for others. Is there a risk there that U.S. tariffs, if they continue, if they're piling on, could that dent that 5% growth target? I

think it certainly could. When those tariffs get high enough, any advantage will be taken away. And so at a high enough rate, it will do real damage to Chinese exporters, and that will have a real impact on the economy in turn. What rate that is, I think it's hard to theorize. But I would expect Beijing to be ready to provide more support as those tariffs go up. So

with all that we've talked about, the challenges at home and beyond, is China's growth target of 5% achievable? The 5% target

for GDP, to me, is a relatively pessimistic target. It's in combination with the fact that they've also pledged a record amount of deficit spending. And so China is having to spend more to stay in place. That to me suggests the government is looking around the world. It's looking at what the United States is doing. It's looking at what's happening in Europe. And it's thinking this year is going to be a tough year. And they're trying to be realistic what they can get done. I think they didn't want to lower the target because it would have sent, I think, the wrong signal to bureaucrats around the country that maybe they don't have to work as hard. They didn't have to try as hard. message to financial markets in terms of what to expect, how ambitious, how much effort the government is going to put into making the economy better again, reviving growth again. And so it sort of is an acknowledgement of the challenges, but also trying to show that the central government is up to the task of trying to tackle those challenges.