The 24 Hours of Mutiny and What It Means for Russia

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From
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a Russian perspective Putin has been working very hard to ensure his elites that he's still in control, that he can still guarantee their safety. And for now, it doesn't seem like there's an immediate threat to his grip on power. But if Ukraine launches a successful counterfensive, and if, as Ukraine says, their main offensive is still yet to come, I think they could bring a lot of instability back into Russia. I think Putin's regime has shown cracks that when looking forward to that, I think we'll be looking at this moment. The first instance when we've really
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seen how fragile Putin's regime
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is.
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This is a gift to the Ukrainian military. And I think we're going to see whether they can exploit the confusion and the demoralization that's inevitably going to take root in some parts of the Russian military to the fullest advantage. I don't think we'll see a total collapse of the Russian military in the field far from it. But I think this has always been in terms of Ukraine strategy about the maximum pressure that can be applied on Russia as it maintains this very difficult war effort that it's embroiled itself in. And this moment, I think, is one of the single biggest instances of pressure being applied on the Kremlin, on the Russian military and the sort of the overall Russian elites that I think we've seen since the invasion has begun. So let's see how much pressure the Kremlin and Putin's regime can take both in Moscow and on the field of battle in eastern southern Ukraine.
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And that's it for this week's real story on the 24 hours of mutiny and what it means for Russia. My thanks to our guests, Katrina Doxy, associate director for the Transnational Threats Project at the Nonprofit Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Pyotr Sa, Russian affairs reporter for the Guardian newspaper, and Simea Puri, author of the new book Russia's Road to War with Ukraine Invasion amidst the ashes of Enbud. For this week, I'm Sean Lay, and this is the real story. Thanks very much for your company, and I'll leave you with this thought. In a speech condemning the mutiny this week, President Vladimir Putin offered a warning from history. What happened after the faltering Russian offensive in the First World War first destroyed the Romanov dynasty, then provoked what became the Bolshevik Revolution and finally triggered years of brutal civil war. One detail he may not have recalled, or perhaps chose to overlook, is that the fatal blow against Zarniklas II was struck not by revolutionaries, but by the Zars own generals who deserted their militarily inept commander in chief. Goodbye.

Wagner's 24-hour mutiny

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