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Putton's Invasion
Marko: A lot of people were caught off guard by russia actually invading ukraine this year. Marko: My framework for forecasting t politics focuses on material constraints and a, i wrote a whole book on that. So instead of starting trying to like, throw darts at the board of policy maker preferences, talking to consultants who presumably have insights into the inner workings of the mind of people like puton or she start with something you can actually do yourself," he says.