Ultra short-term Treasurys have rallied so much that the 1 month bill now yields over 150 basis points less than similar instruments at the Federal Reserve. Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley to discuss.
Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(04:30) Money Is Getting Herded Into Highest Tier Of Collateral
(07:54) Liquidity Preference Is Extreme
(15:21) Treasurys Role In Banks' Asset & Liability Management
(18:47) Credit Crunch
(22:35) Public Ad
(23:39) Are The Bank Runs Over?
(30:42) Is The "Mild Recession" Forecast Plausible?
(33:57) How Many More Rate Hikes Does The Fed Have In The Chamber?
(35:41) The Fed's Efforts To Help The Banking System (BTFP, Discount Window, etc.)
(39:40) Were Rate Hikes To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)?
(43:08) Impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) On Bank Deposit Levels
(44:50) Was There "Money Printing" In 2020?
(47:42) Did The Banks Take Too Much Interest Rate Risk in 2020 & 2021?
(49:48) Defining "Deflationary Money"
(55:12) LIBOR Futures Will Be Phased Out, Right?
(56:37) Counterargument: Debt Ceiling Is The Reason Short-Term Treasury Bills Are Trading At Such A Premium
(01:02:32) Summary Of Jeff's Views On Credit Crunch & Deflationary Money
