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Episode 34: Reflections on 2022 and Outlook for 2023

Complexity Premia

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The Global Recession Is Coming

In late 2021 and January 22, we laid out some core hypotheses regarding what the future might hold for a range of asset classes. We were pretty much negative on everything. Our biggest miss was not anticipating that higher inflation would become a cost-deliving crisis which would transform pre-to-naturally-dovish politicians into interest rate hawks. The experiment with zero rates and QA2 infinity is dead to the time being. Central bankers have been badly scarred by completely missing the corollary of their cheap money policies. And you know what, the world may never look the same again.

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