Political Predictions and Trade Dynamics

As tensions flare between Iran and Israel, investors are watching oil, gold, and, of course, crypto. In this episode of Bits + Bips, the panel digs into the market response to war risk, the chances the Fed will actually cut rates, and how Circle’s IPO is being treated more like a meme stock than a fintech play.

Plus:

• Why Scaramucci says we’re all living in a surveillance state 

• Whether stablecoins are being kneecapped by U.S. regulation 

• When altcoin ETFs are coming

• And what BlackRock’s Larry Fink secretly told Scaramucci about Bitcoin in 2021 👀
  

Sponsor:

• Bitwise

• James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence

• Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard

• Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter 

• Anthony Scaramucci, Founder of SkyBridge

US-Iran-Israel war

• Unchained: Bitcoin Dips Below $100K as U.S.–Iran Tensions Trigger $627M in Liquidations

• Polymarket: Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?

• WSJ: What Israel’s Soaring Markets Are Saying About the Iran War

Macro

• WSJ: Fed’s Bowman Says She Could Support a July Interest-Rate Cut

• CNBC: Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July

• FT: Jay Powell to push back on calls for Federal Reserve rate cuts as soon as July

Stablecoins

• WSJ: Stablecoin World Opens Up to Main Street Banks

• The Block: Circle's post-IPO stock surge pushes market cap near Coinbase and USDC

ETFs

• James upped the odds on a bunch of altcoin spot ETFs

Timestamps:

• 🎬 0:00 Intro

• 🌍 2:51 Are there lessons in how the markets shrugged off the Iran-Israel conflict?

• 🔥 9:37 What flashpoints in the Middle East could ignite next

• 🛢️ 14:40 Will oil supplies remain safe?

• 💸 22:13 Are cracks finally forming in the Fed’s resistance to rate cuts?

• 📉 28:08 Why Anthony believes that Fed Chair Powell is playing politics with rates

• 🇺🇸 33:55 Whether TACO Trump or tough Trump will show up on tariff day

• 🎯 36:26 What Anthony says that people get wrong about Trump’s economic strategy

• 🏦 43:52 Why Circle’s IPO feels more meme than fintech and what Larry Fink once secretly told Anthony about bitcoin 👀

• 🚫 50:27 One thing that Anthony HATES about the GENIUS Act

• 📊 56:17 Why James is upping his odds on a wave of altcoin ETFs, but doesn’t expect many to be successful products

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