Why distress may rise in 2026

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This Episode

It’s the November PassivePockets Pulse Check. Jim Pfeifer, Paul Shannon, and Chris Lopez share what’s new in their portfolios, the real impact of the Fed’s second rate cut, the tool you should use this month (sponsor reviews—now updatable), and how they’re setting concrete goals for 2026. Plus: a big announcement: PassivePockets Summit is in Denver, April 30 (arrival) - May 2. Vote on sessions and networking ideas via the survey in the link above.

Key Takeaways

• Portfolio check: capital back from an Aspen Funds industrial deal (tribe structure), 30% return of capital from a Threefold sale, and an unfortunate likely loss tied to the DJE/Ascent situation, why operator integrity and transparency matter
• Real deals in motion: Paul’s Indiana acquisition fully subscribed (rate locked), and an Evansville 56-unit true-distress LOI/PSA walkthrough (what those terms mean and why the team thinks it’s a fast operational turn)
• Rates: two cuts this fall (~50 bps total) boosted sentiment but barely moved longer-term agency debt; example: 7-yr Treasury + spread shifted only ~6 bps between application and lock
• Outlook: expect a trickle, not a tsunami, of distress into 2026 as “extend & pretend” maturities roll; bid/ask is narrowing, which may push lenders to act
• Tools & goals: update your Sponsor Reviews (and why “update” notes help the community); Chris is rebalancing toward private credit and Roth-powered compounding, Jim is doubling down on trusted operators and liquidity discipline, and Paul is rotating from cash/metals into equity while keeping a family financial “in case of emergency” plan current

Disclaimer

The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk, so use your best judgment and consult with qualified advisors before investing. You should only risk capital you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This podcast may contain paid advertisements or other promotional materials for real estate investment advisers, investment funds, and investment opportunities, which should not be interpreted as a recommendation, endorsement, or testimonial by PassivePockets, LLC or any of its affiliates. Viewers must conduct their own due diligence and consider their own financial situations before engaging with any advertised offerings, products, or services. PassivePockets, LLC disclaims all liability for direct, indirect, consequential, or other damages arising out of reliance on information and advertisements presented in this podcast.