In this episode of Forward Guidance, fan favourites Michael Howell and Joseph Wang pair up to discuss the overarching theme of liquidity and the Fed. After sounding the alarm and forecasting a decline in equity markets towards the end of 2021, those predictions are now beginning to manifest in markets.
Michael walks listeners through how he tracks market liquidity as a leading indicator for equity prices. Joseph provides an in depth look at the signals driving the Fed in this environment. Both guests share their thoughts on the Powell pivot myth, volatility, signs of stagflation, QT and so much more.
This episode is jam packed with insights you can't afford to miss, but to hear them, you'll have to tune in!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:28) What Is Liquidity?
(09:10) Declining Refinancing Capacity
(13:46) Bagehot's Rule and The Discount Window
(24:50) Is This Unprecedented?
(28:35) Is Waiting For A Powell Pivot Futile?
(30:16) The Fed And The VIX
(33:16) Inflation and Recession
(36:24) How Much QT Can The Fed Actually Do?
(39:20) Gold and Crypto
(41:17) The U.S. Dollar's Role
(45:17) The People's Bank of China
(46:43) How Much Power Does the Fed Actually Have?
(49:12) The Commercial Banking System
(53:33) Where Are Long-Duration Bond Yields Headed?
(1:02:28) Yield Curve Interpretations
(1:07:08) Is There A Problem Lurking In Credit?
(1:09:03) "Good Liquidity" vs. "Bad Liquidity"
(1:12:55) China
(1:18:10) Closing Thoughts On The Market
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
