Exchange vs withdrawal ratios and seller outcomes

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 45, 2025 Myself and Simon Gates look at the UK property market for the week ending Sunday 16th November 2025. YouTube link https://youtu.be/6yYA8-WM0Mo ✅ New Listings * 26.1k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 27.1k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 35.6k. * 9 year week 45 average : 27.6k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.59m new listings, 1.1% higher than 2024 YTD (1.57m) and 8.2% above the 2017–19 average (1.46m) ✅ Price Reductions * 16.7k reductions this week, lower than last week’s at 18.5k (Estate Agents seem to forget they can reduce houses prices after the first week in November!) * 12.8% of resi homes for sale were reduced in October. Compared to Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average still remains at 13.2%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 22.9k homes sold subject to contract this week, up unexpectedly from 22.5k last week. * Week 45 average (for last 9 years) :22.9k * 2025 weekly average : 26k. * YTD: 1.162m gross sales, which is 3.8% ahead of 2024 (1.119m) and 12.3% above the 2017–19 average (1.034m). * Best week for Resi sales in Inner London since May 2025. 1,658 homes sold stc last week. To compare, 1,293 was the weekly average for Resi sales in October 2025 and the weekly average for the whole year has been 1,403 sale agreed per week ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £387k vs Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) - £363k - a 6.5% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%)… * The average listing price was £452k in Sept and £415k in October.. ie fewer expensive homes being listed. Is that because of the Budget ??? ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 15% of homes on agents’ books went SSTC in October. Up from 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 5,802 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 510k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,173. * Fall-through rate: 25.4%, slightly down from 26.5% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 17.1k net sales this week, up unexpectedly from 16.6k last week. * Nine-year Week 45 average: 16.8k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.7k. * YTD: 884k, which is 3.3% ahead of 2024 (856k) and 9.2% above 2017–19 (810k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * October Stats : 53.3% of homes that left agents’ books exchanged & completed in October. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more October stats come in). (93.6k exchanges & 82k withdrawals) * September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 742k homes on the market at the start of November, 2.4% higher than November 2024. (725k) * Notable increases include 9% more homes for sale in London than 12 months ago (9.96% in Inner London & 9.03% in Outer London) & 5.48% in the South East and 5.02% in the South West. The North has seen a drop in homes for sale. * 511k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st November, 2.2% higher than 12 months ago. ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * October 2025 agreed sales averaged £343.18 per sq.ft. 0.8% higher than 12 months ago and 13.8% than 5 years ago. The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in October - £1,916 pcm - compared to £1,802 in Oct 2024 and £1,557 in Oct 2017. * Available Rental Properties in October ’25 - 323k compared to 302k in October ’24. * Notable increase of 23.8% more rental homes in Outer London than 12 months ago, yet a 4.8% decrease in Inner London - Not sure why